More often, there’s a calm before the storm, but the past 12 months have been heavy weather in defence.
With perplexing levels of inaction, funding delays and reform measures, June’s draft Defence Investment Plan (DIP) settlement, short by c£13bn, has ultimately led to the resignation of all the key decision makers. Losing the Secretary of State for Defence, Armed Forces Minister and now Prime Minister in the space of two weeks has exacerbated the potential for lasting damage to our operational effectiveness and supporting industry efforts.
Compelling is the ensuing debate: whether the department cut its cloth by removing a platform such as the Tempest fast jets, which now appears at odds with drone warfare in Ukraine, or the finance gap is closed by contributions from other government department savings. The most likely option is that the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) is unaffordable, we recognise that we cannot do everything and it is reshaped to concentrate effort on the north Atlantic flank. This view is held by Lord Sedwill (former National Security Adviser) who observed that “painful cuts” were needed to afford and enable reduced objectives, including a move away from the UK’s existing “balanced force” of sea, land and air.
Crucial is resourcing the demand signal and the communication switch make this credible. I asked John Healey in June (then still SoS Defence) whether the constraints placed on the MOD civil service by Defence reform (hiring freezes and voluntary severance) would hinder the speed with which procurement of all key support areas takes place, once the announcement of the DIP releases the pent-up demand articulated by the SDR commitments. He set out a message of success, despite adversity – not exactly comforting to those in the room.
Critical is presentation of a credible DIP by our new Secretary of State for Defence, Dan Jarvis, and soon-to-be former PM Kier Starmer, at the NATO summit on 7-8 July. Given the opportunity to impose Prime Ministerial purdah (the government shorthand for pausing policy or funding decisions between leadership or administrations) this decision to act otherwise – in advance of an expected Andy Burham premiership - powerfully indicates the building urgency and realisation of the impact of further procrastination.
What can industry do? The infrastructure sector is primed with routes to MOD’s market; Gleeds having secured key lots and team positions on the new Government Commercial Agency’s Construction Professional Services Framework. Launch of the defence housing agency, part of the embryonic National Armaments Director Group (NADG) with needs across the UK, inside and outside the wire, presents a range of opportunity for cross-government collaboration with Homes England and devolved administrations. The shaping of private finance models, another SDR objective, quietly continues in the background. We are bringing key industry estates requirements to market with Barrow’s redevelopment to support the BAE Systems pillar of the Submarine Programme, a significant programme for defence as an engine for growth. Ready … awaiting funding.
All eyes are on Ankara - then will the pipeline flow?!
